Study on the establishment of a risk prediction line chart model for intestinal obstruction in patients with acute appendicitis
SUN Hua-cui,ZHAO De-yin,LIU Si-yi
Suzhou Hospital Affiliated to Anhui Medical University, Suzhou234000, China
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the influencing factors of intestinal obstruction in patients with acute appendicitis, and to establish a line chart prediction model. Methods The clinical data of 395 patients with acute appendicitis admitted to our hospital from August 2019 to March 2022 were selected. The patients were divided into the concurrent group(n=22)and the non-concurrent group(n=373)according to whether they had intestinal obstruction. The general data of the two groups were compared. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the influencing factors of intestinal obstruction in patients with acute appendicitis and to draw a nomogram. The predictive efficacy and calibration of the nomogram were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and Bootstrap method. Results The white blood cell count and neutrophil count of patients with different pathological types of acute appendicitis were significantly different (P < 0.05). The anterior/posterior ileal lesions, periappendiceal effusion, time from onset to visit, hypokalemia, white blood cell count and neutrophil count were risk factors for intestinal obstruction in patients with acute appendicitis (P < 0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity of the risk prediction model of intestinal obstruction in patients with acute appendicitis were 0.830 (95% CI:0.788-0.866), 77.27% and 85.52%, respectively. After internal verification by Bootstrap method, the consistency index (C-index) was 0.837. Conclusion The nomogram model based on risk factors had good calibration and is helpful in screening patients with acute appendicitis complicated with intestinal obstruction.
